Men's March Madness bubble winners and losers: Villanova on brink after heartbreaking loss

A horrid start put Villanova in a 24-point first half deficit against Creighton. But the Wildcats clawed back.

They kept it close for a majority of the second half, but a major run late tied the game — which Villanova head coach Kyle Neptune had called “our Super Bowl” — at 67 with 25 seconds left.

But hoping to be the Kansas City Chiefs, Villanova instead ended up being the San Francisco 49ers as Creighton’s Trey Alexander hit a fadeaway jumper with less than a second left to break the Wildcats' hearts.

The defeat capped a disappointing week for Villanova.

The Wildcats entered the week winners of five of their last six and had positioned themselves to be among the last four teams in the NCAA Tournament, per the latest USA TODAY Sports Bracketology prediction. But Villanoa had a disappointing performance at Seton Hall on Wednesday, and combined with the stunner on Saturday, it shouldn’t be surprised if it's on the outside looking in heading into the Big East tournament. It dropped both Quad 1 chances this week and fell to 4-9 against Quad 1 opponents. A 17-14 overall record with a 10-10 record in conference isn’t the look of a tournament team.

It’s not officially set, but with the loss, Villanova likely will have to play Wednesday in the first round of the Big East tournament, giving the team an uphill battle to secure an NCAA Tournament spot. If it wants the automatic bid, it’ll have to win four games in four days. That likely will include a matchup against Connecticut, Marquette or Creighton. Easier said than done.

Let the Villanova loss in the final weekend of the regular season remind you how small the margin for error is to make the NCAA Tournament. That’s why the Wildcats lead Saturday's early winners and losers on the bubble:

WINNERS

Florida Atlantic

The Owls have avoided falling into one of the last four teams in, and they won’t have to worry about it heading into the conference tournament after defeating Memphis at home.

Less than two weeks ago, Florida Atlantic went into Memphis and couldn’t keep up in the second half. This time, Memphis was on fire from the 3-point line, but the Owls dominated inside the paint at a raucous Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena to win 92-84. Vladislav Goldin, a key member of last season’s Final Four team, made his presence felt with 21 points and 12 rebounds, which matched his season high. Memphis stayed close for much of the afternoon, but Florida Atlantic never let the Tigers take over as it controlled the boards with 16 offensive rebounds for 20 second-chance points.

Florida Atlantic will head into the American Athletic Conference tournament as the No. 2 seed. It's not what it expected at the beginning of the season, but the Owls can comfortably play in Fort Worth, Texas, next week. A conference tournament title isn’t necessary, but it would boost their seed on Selection Sunday. 

St. John's

Rick Pitino would be the first person to tell you his team isn’t great. He’s literally already said it before. St. John’s didn’t look like a fantastic team, but it was able to hold off Georgetown, 86-76, to end the regular season on a five-game winning streak. 

The Johnnies and Hoyas were close for much of the game, especially with Georgetown having a great day shooting behind the arc, but St. John’s countered it by dominating inside the 3-point line with 42 points in the paint. The physical nature of the offense also led to St. John’s shooting a whooping 32 free throws compared to Georgetown’s 12. Getting to the free throw line late in the game helped the Red Storm pull away.

There’s nothing impressive about getting a Quad 4 win this late in the season, but this very easily could’ve been a game that killed St. John’s momentum as a bubble team. A loss would’ve been disastrous to tournament hopes, but now St. John’s maybe needs only one win in the Big East tournament to get an NCAA Tournament spot, a much better outlook than needing a title game appearance.

Colorado

Few teams' stock is rising as much as Colorado right now. The Buffaloes won their sixth in a row Saturday after handling Oregon State in the regular season finale. Their 22 victories are the most the team has ever had in the regular season.

Colorado held Oregon State to just 57 points on 37.5% shooting while all its starters scored in double figures. The starting unit accounted for 69 of its 73 points, led by Eddie Lampkin Jr. notching 17 points.

The end of the regular season couldn’t have gone better for Colorado, which will now enter the Pac-12 Conference tournament as the No. 3 seed. If Colorado can keep its momentum going in Las Vegas, it may not just be a bubble team, but a team that doesn’t have to play in a First Four game. 

ACC bubble teams

Saturday was a good day for ACC schools on the bubble with Virginia, Wake Forest and Pittsburgh all picking up victories. 

One of the last four teams in, Virginia handled Georgia Tech in a 15-point win, Wake Forest got a Quad 1 victory over Clemson to snap a three-game skid and Pittsburgh held off NC State to clinch the fourth seed in the ACC tournament. 

All three winning teams should stay in the bubble picture heading into the conference tournament in the nation’s capital, and they all will need to at least make it to the semifinals to get a better chance of an NCAA Tournament spot. That means one win for Virginia and Pittsburgh, and two for Wake Forest. 

Missouri Valley at-large bid

The Missouri Valley Conference has a case to get two teams in the NCAA Tournament after Indiana State and Drake advanced to their conference tournament final. Indiana State had no problems taking care of Northern Iowa in a 94-72 win, and Drake was able to pull away from Bradley late in their semifinal matchup to set up the championship match on Sunday.

Unfortunately for the conference, only one team will automatically be in the NCAA Tournament while the other will have to hope for some help by Selection Sunday. If anything, Indiana State is more likely to get an at-large spot with the Sycamores having a NET ranking of 29 and the Bulldogs ranked 46 in the metric. Regardless, both teams will try to make a compelling case when they face each other in the Arch Madness finale after splitting the regular season series.

LOSERS

Mississippi State

Mississippi State has become the latest team to go from comfortably in to on the bubble.

Two weeks ago, the Bulldogs won their fifth consecutive game and were on their way to getting at least a No. 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. But since then, Mississippi State has lost four in a row, capped off by an overtime loss to South Carolina on Saturday.

Josh Hubbard did his usual business for the Bulldogs with 28 points, and he even got help with three other players scoring in double figures. But the Bulldogs missed all three of their 3-point attempts (two from Hubbard) in overtime in the four-point loss

Finishing the regular season with an 8-10 conference record shows what a big disappointment the Bulldogs have been in recent weeks; They end the regular season with a 7-11 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. Mississippi State should remain in the projected tournament field, but it can’t afford a one-and-done experience in the SEC tournament now.

Utah

A Pac-12 tournament title might be the only way Utah can get into the NCAA Tournament after a disastrous weekend in the Beaver State. 

After a confusing Quad 3 loss at Oregon State on Thursday, the Utes had a chance to redeem themselves with a Quad 1 win at Oregon on Saturday. After falling behind early, Branden Carlson got his team the lead, but the star player went down with an elbow injury early in the second half. Oregon took advantage and had the lead in the final seconds, but Utah had a chance for a last second win. It didn’t drop, and the Utes lost 66-65. 

The two consecutive losses were something Utah couldn’t afford being one of the first teams projected to miss the tournament, and just shows how bad of a second half of the season it was after starting the campaign 11-2. With no bye in the Pac-12 tournament after finishing 9-11 in the weak conference, it’ll take a miracle run – and likely Carlson back – to get into the tournament.

Providence

Nothing could be as big of a tournament boost on Saturday than beating Connecticut, and Providence looked to be heading that away when it led the Huskies 15-2 in the first four minutes of the game. 

Then Connecticut reminded the country why they are favored to be a back-to-back national title team. By halftime the Huskies had blitzed the Friars with an 18-point lead, and Providence couldn’t recover by losing 74-60. 

As one of the first four teams out, Providence could have assured itself a projected tournament spot by picking up a sixth Quad 1 win, but the loss instead shows how the Friars weren’t able to pick up a resume booster in the end of the regular season by losing three of its last four. Now like Villanova, the Friars will have to play a first round game in the Big East Tournament, and it might take making the semifinals in order to jump into the bracket.

New Mexico

New Mexico will have to continue to live on the bubble after it fell just short against Mountain West regular season champion Utah State 87-85.

It was a back-and-forth contest all game, with New Mexico leading by as much as six with 11 minutes to go. Tied in the final minutes, Utah State’s Darius Brown II hit a clutch 3-point game winner with five seconds to go to give the Aggies the conference title. 

It was a disappointing end to the regular season for the Lobos, finishing with losses in three of its last four that included a horrid Quad 4 loss to Air Force. Of all the contending Mountain West schools, New Mexico has the least amount of Quad 1 wins with only two, and it will be the No. 6 seed in the Mountain West tournament, needing to pick up at least a win to stay alive, maybe two.